Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, February 19th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory with little to drive trading this morning. Stocks are nearly unchanged with the Dow up 2 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (2.64%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates slightly if comparing to Friday’s early pricing. The financial and mortgage markets were closed yesterday for the President’s Day holiday.



30 yr - 2.64%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



Stock Influences

There is nothing of importance set for release today. If we see an intraday move in mortgage rates it likely will be a result of stocks extending this morning’s modest gains or dropping into negative ground. Strength in stocks usually leads to pressure in bonds and an upward move in mortgage pricing. On the other hand, if stocks go into selling mode, we may see an intraday improvement to rates.




The rest of the week brings us the release of only three pieces of monthly economic data for the bond market to digest along with the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. Making things a little more interesting is the fact that all of the week's events take place over only two days- tomorrow and Thursday. Friday also does not have anything of relevance scheduled except for a handful of Fed member speaking engagements.



Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

We will get the release of last month’s FOMC meeting minutes tomorrow afternoon. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed's next move regarding monetary policy, particularly economic concerns and when the next rate increase may come. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during afternoon trading. These minutes may lead to afternoon volatility tomorrow, or they may be a non-factor. However, they do carry the potential to influence mortgage rates so they should be watched.




Overall, Thursday is likely to be the most active day for mortgage rates with all three of the week’s monthly economic reports scheduled for release, including the Durable Goods Orders report that is considered to be of high importance. Any surprises in the FOMC minutes could cause tomorrow afternoon to become very active also. The calmest day will probably be today or Friday unless something unexpected takes place. I don’t believe we will see as much movement in the markets and mortgage pricing this week as we have seen the past few weeks.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.